Chronux Research

The leading independent research firm in South Africa

Chronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.

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Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers

A weaker oil price, significantly lower refining margins and a stronger rand have driven spot earnings lower and FY20 spot HEPS at R12.51 are now 20% below our forecast and the spot estimate of R15.43 for FY21 is almost 60% below our estimate of R36.30.We estimate if...

WBHO – 1H FY20 Results

Australia Again!! Key message: The challenges of operating a construction company remotely are again apparent. WBHO failed one of the three Golden Rules of Construction – avoid new geographies, new disciplines and only use the A-team. The Infrastructure business (a...

Navigator Q4 19A: Europe UWF market leader

Stable sales but EBITDA down 18% y/y: Growth in pulp and tissue sales offset weakness in lower pulp prices and paper volumes. However, the EBITDA margin came under pressure due to lower pulp prices and higher production costs (Energy, wood and chemicals). Cost...

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Feedback from Mgmt. Discussions at Results Key message: A tough period but through the noise Bidvest traded sideways – not bad in the current economy. Mgmt. are positive about FY21 prospects – organic and acquisitive growth should boost earnings. Bidvest announced 1H...

Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers

Sasol’s spot earnings are down significantly following our downgrade in earnings (link) as well as (ii) a sharp decline in oil prices, a significant decrease in refining margins as well as chemical prices.  Spot earnings for are at R13.71/share and R18.73/share...

Sasol: Another massive downgrade – why oh why?

Another large downgrade:   We have once again cut our earnings expectations for FY20, this time from R26.65/share to R15.60/share.  This cut comes as a result of the performance in the business, a cut in assumptions for chemical prices as well as a higher expected tax...

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Key message: Motus is using its balance sheet to support growth – evident in rising inventory utilisation. The draft Right of Repair bill has significant potential implications and creates a risk overhang. Motus Holdings released 1H FY20 results. Revenue increased by...

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Continuing Operations benefit from cost cutting Key message: The logistics sector is challenging in all regions – but cost-cutting has helped balance volume and margin pressure. Imperial Logistics released 1H FY20 results. Revenue and continuing operating profit...

Read-through from Stora Enso’s Q4 19A results

Q4 19A basic EPS up 69% y/y and FY DPS flat y/y. Self-help continues through their profit protection programme (EUR 275m fixed and variable costs savings by the end of FY 21e, with EUR 105m realised in FY 19A). Gearing at 2.1x (adjusted for IFRS 16: 1.9x) was slightly...

Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers

Sasol’s spot earnings increased to R25.88/share this week as oil prices increased and the rand weakened.  Refining margins fell back as product prices lagged the increase in the oil price.Our FY20E spot earnings still exclude Sasol’s recent downgrade of the LCCP...